Economists Project A Sobering 2009 Travel Outlook

The Travel Industry Association of America (TIA) held its annual Marketing Outlook Forum from October 28th to October 30th in Portland, Oregon.  Over 600 travel marketing professionals attended sessions to comprehend the latest forecasts for travel demand and to brainstorm strategic ramifications for their communications programs. Overall travel demand for 2009 is projected to decline by -1.3%, pulled down by a larger projected decrease in business travel.  Historically, the travel segment of the economy tends to lead the recovery so there is cause for optimism for 2010.

Dean Reeder, NPS tourism chief, delivered a paper on the outlook for U.S. National Parks. 

“Despite weak economic conditions and lagging consumer confidence, national parks visitation, projected to grow a mere 0.4%, will benefit from a preference for value; driven by deeply held values,” said Reeder.

The spirit at the meeting was not all gloom and doom.  With a nod to gallows humor, many people were saying, “flat is the new up.”  According to the latest survey co-authored by TIA and Ypartnership, seven out of ten respondents (71%) intend to take an overnight trip of 50 miles or more from home during the next six months.  Fully half (48%) said they are not planning any changes to their future travel plans as a result of turmoil in the financial markets.

Consumers are likely to plan and purchase leisure trips differently with the pursuit of a “good value” as the primary reason why.  Seven out of ten (67%) plan to stay fewer nights and a comparable number of respondents expect to spend less on food, beverages, and entertainment while traveling.

The national parks outlook sees a continuation of the 2008 trend for shorter trips in both distance and time.  One key difference between 2008 and 2009 is that we will see far fewer International visitors.  With airline consolidation, price increases and capacity reductions, closer-to-home automobile trips will replace long-haul plane trips as the primary means of travel.  American travelers are trading down, but not out.  By spring, 2009 consumers will seek relief from household cost-cutting; fulfilling strongly held needs and values for discovery and recovery.  In tough economic times, many families will prefer more authentic experiences such as those offered by the national parks system of historic, cultural, and natural attractions.

Providing consumer research and trends data is one of the strategic actions outlined in the NPS National Tourism Strategic Plan, recently approved by the NLC.  Copies of the plan, presentations from the 2008 Marketing Outlook Forum, as well as other research and market trends data are available to parks and park programs on the Office of Tourism site on InsideNPS.  Click on “More Information” or visit http://inside.nps.gov/waso/waso.cfm?lv=2&prg=58